Kalshi doesn't post odds; it posts prices. A contract at 62¢ means the market puts the chance at 62%, pays $1 if it happens, and is the equivalent of about −163 at a sportsbook. The prices aren't set by Kalshi but by whoever is trading, which is why they can beat a sportsbook's line on liquid games and lag on thin ones. Add the fee and the spread to get your real break-even.
Reading a Kalshi market
- Yes 62¢ / No 39¢: buy Yes for 62¢ or No for 39¢. The two add to 101¢; the extra 1¢ is the spread.
- Probability: 62%.
- American odds: −163 for Yes, +156 for No (from 39¢).
- Payout: $1 per contract if right; profit 38¢ on Yes, 61¢ on No.
Converting
Favourite (price above 50¢): American odds = −100 × price ÷ (1 − price). Underdog: +100 × (1 − price) ÷ price. Decimal odds = 1 ÷ price. Full table on how to read prediction market odds.
Why Kalshi's number differs from a sportsbook's
- No house margin. A book's −110/−110 line has 4.5% built in. Kalshi's Yes + No is usually 100–102¢; the fee is separate and smaller.
- Different crowd. Kalshi's traders include people hedging and arbitraging against books; the price can move before or after the books.
- Depth. On a Monday night game the Kalshi price is as sharp as anyone's; on a small college prop it might be one person's limit order.
The real break-even
Price + fee. At 62¢ Kalshi's taker fee is 1.65¢, so you pay 63.65¢ and need the event to happen more than 63.65% of the time to profit. A resting limit order has no fee, so your break-even is the price itself. That difference is the whole reason to learn limit orders. See fees.