Prediction markets quote prices in cents, and the price is the probability: a 62¢ Yes contract means the crowd thinks there's a 62% chance. If you're used to sportsbooks, 62¢ is about −163 and 38¢ is about +163. The conversion is simple and the table below does it for you. The one thing the price doesn't include is your fee and the spread, which push your real break-even a little higher.
The conversion table
| Price (Yes) | Implied probability | American odds | Decimal odds | Profit per $1 contract if right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 5% | +1900 | 20.00 | 95¢ |
| 10¢ | 10% | +900 | 10.00 | 90¢ |
| 20¢ | 20% | +400 | 5.00 | 80¢ |
| 25¢ | 25% | +300 | 4.00 | 75¢ |
| 33¢ | 33% | +203 | 3.03 | 67¢ |
| 40¢ | 40% | +150 | 2.50 | 60¢ |
| 50¢ | 50% | +100 / −100 | 2.00 | 50¢ |
| 52.4¢ | 52.4% | −110 | 1.91 | 47.6¢ |
| 60¢ | 60% | −150 | 1.67 | 40¢ |
| 67¢ | 67% | −203 | 1.49 | 33¢ |
| 75¢ | 75% | −300 | 1.33 | 25¢ |
| 80¢ | 80% | −400 | 1.25 | 20¢ |
| 90¢ | 90% | −900 | 1.11 | 10¢ |
| 95¢ | 95% | −1900 | 1.05 | 5¢ |
The formulas
- Probability: the price, read as a percentage.
- Decimal odds: 1 ÷ price. (62¢ → 1.61.)
- American odds, favourite (price > 50¢): −100 × price ÷ (1 − price). (62¢ → −163.)
- American odds, underdog (price < 50¢): +100 × (1 − price) ÷ price. (38¢ → +163.)
- From American odds back to a price: favourite −X → X ÷ (X + 100); underdog +X → 100 ÷ (X + 100). (−110 → 52.4¢; +250 → 28.6¢.)
Yes, No and the spread
Every market has two sides that mirror each other: Yes at 62¢ is the same position as No at 38¢ sold. What you see on the screen is the best current offer for each side, and the two best offers add up to a bit more than $1. Yes 62¢ / No 40¢ means a 2¢ spread: buy both and you lose 2¢ at settlement. The spread is the market's liquidity cost, on top of the fee. A tight spread (1¢) says the market is deep; a wide one (5¢+) says be careful with market orders. More on slippage.
Why the price isn't quite your break-even
If you buy Yes at 62¢ and pay a 1.65¢ taker fee (Kalshi's rate at that price), you've paid 63.65¢ for a $1 payout. You need the event to happen more than 63.65% of the time to profit, not 62%. Post a limit order instead and the fee is zero on most markets, so the price is your break-even. The fee page has the full table.
Reading a market in ten seconds
- Price = probability. 62¢ = 62%.
- Spread = cost of trading now. Yes + No − 100 = spread in cents.
- Volume and book depth = how much you can trade without moving it.
- Rules = what actually counts as Yes. Read them.