The CLARITY Act, the crypto market-structure bill that would hand the CFTC authority over spot crypto markets, failed a Senate cloture vote 49–50 on September 15, 2026. Prediction markets had seen it coming: Polymarket's contract on the bill becoming law in 2026 traded at about 82% in February, roughly 49% in late June, and about 13% by late August as ethics and stablecoin-yield fights stalled the Senate text. A motion to reconsider keeps a technical path open; the calendar makes 2026 enactment a longshot.
Price history (Polymarket: H.R. 3633 becomes law in 2026)
| When | Price | What was happening |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | ~82% | House passage momentum; Senate Banking markup expected |
| May | ~74% peak then falling | Senate Banking clears the bill 15–9 with only two Democrats |
| June 29 | ~49% | No unified Senate text; floor time contested; Galaxy cuts its odds to 50/50 |
| August 8 | falling | Thune files cloture; vote set for Sept 15; Galaxy at 30% |
| Late August | ~13% | Ethics compromise unsigned; Hawley opposes over deposit flight |
| Sept 15 | lower | Cloture fails 49–50 |
About $11.5 million traded on the contract by late August. Kalshi ran companion contracts on whether the Senate would vote by October 1 (91% in late August; it did vote, and lost).
Why it failed
- Ethics: Democrats wanted restrictions on officials' crypto dealings, including a divestment requirement aimed at the president's ventures; the White House didn't sign off on the Gallego–Tillis compromise.
- Stablecoin yield: banks lobbied against rewards on stablecoin balances as a threat to deposits; Senator Hawley sided with them.
- DeFi and illicit finance: disagreements on protections for non-custodial developers and on anti-money-laundering gaps.
- Arithmetic: 53 Republicans minus four defectors needed at least eleven Democrats; they got none.
What's next
Tillis's motion to reconsider means the Senate can take the vote again without restarting. Seven Democrats said they're committed to a bipartisan bill. Against that: the October election recess, a lame-duck session dominated by the December 11 funding deadline, and the fact that a bill not enacted by January 3, 2027 must be reintroduced in the next Congress. Meanwhile the SEC and CFTC chairs said they'll write crypto rules under existing authority, and the CFTC has since proposed first rules of its own, which reduces the urgency for some supporters.
Trading it
Politics/tech category: 4% rate on Polymarket for takers, free for makers. The contract resolves on enactment in 2026, not on any vote. Low-probability contracts have expensive fees as a share of stake (see fees), so if you're buying the Yes side at 8¢, use a resting order.
Sources: Paul Hastings crypto policy tracker (Sept 2026); Bitcoin.com News (Aug 31, 2026); Decrypt (June 29, 2026); CoinGape (Aug 20, 2026). Prices dated; not a recommendation.