The Texas Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton is the single most important contract in the 2026 Senate-control picture. On October 15, 2026 Kalshi had Talarico at 64%, up from a coin flip in late summer, and the Senate-control market moves almost one-for-one with this race. Texas has no general-election runoff, so the contract should settle on certification in November.
Snapshot, October 15, 2026
| Market | Price |
|---|---|
| Kalshi: Democrat wins Texas Senate | 64¢ |
| Kalshi: Democrats win Senate control | 62.8¢ |
| Polymarket: Democrats win Senate control | 64¢ |
Dated snapshot; the live price is the one that counts.
Why this race
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats. For Democrats to take control they need to flip seats in states that voted Republican for president, and Texas, with its 2026 open-primary turbulence, became the biggest of those targets once Paxton was the nominee. Maine (Collins), Ohio's special election, Iowa and Alaska are the others; Texas is the one with the most electoral votes of attention and the most volume on the exchanges.
What moves the price
- Public polling, especially the handful of high-quality Texas polls.
- Early-vote and registration data in October.
- National environment: the generic ballot and presidential approval.
- Money and turnout operations, which markets price indirectly via polling.
Trading it
Politics markets carry a 4% rate on Polymarket and 7% on Kalshi for takers, with makers free on both. At 64¢ the Kalshi taker fee is 1.6¢, so your break-even on Yes is about 65.6%; a resting order removes it. Texas residents can trade on any platform; see Texas legality.
Prices per DefiRate's midterms tracker (Oct 15, 2026) aggregating Kalshi and Polymarket. Not a recommendation.